Hey everyone,
The LuckyDog Poker column to be distributed Tuesday (May 1) includes responses I received about a hand I played in March at Meskwaki Casino in Iowa during a Heartland Poker Tour event. One of the responses was quite detailed and too lengthy to completely present in the column.
So here, with only non-relevant parts removed, is the full response from Paul S. of Orcas Island, Wash., for your assessment and review.
Hi Russ,
I found your column regarding your KK in the Heartland Poker Tour satellite in Tama, IA as a result of googling Heartland Poker Tour. Since you rhetorically asked the entire internet for their opinion of your play, I’d love to give you my (entirely unrhetorical) opinion. If you care to discuss further, I’d be happy to. Here goes:
What a tough spot you were in! A raise, a re-raise from a rock, and looking down at KK! Not an easy decision at all. All kinds of things are in play here.
First of all, the under-the-gun limper should not be ignored. Whenever I see a limp under the gun, I get wary. Too often have I seen an under the gun limper turn over AA. It’s often just too scary for a weak player to raise with AA under the gun. They’re afraid everyone will fold, and they won’t get any action on their Aces. Personally, I think it’s kind of a dumb play, because you run the very real risk of having a bunch of limpers follow you, and it’s a bummer to be sitting with AA against four other players. But that doesn’t stop other players from doing it on a regular basis.
Second, your initial raiser could have a lot of things, but an AK, AQ, AJ, or A10 has to be in your top couple choices.
Third, I think your read on the the re-raising rock is probably correct, AA or QQ. I would add in a 15% chance of AK, and a 5% chance of something weaker. Remember, you’ve only played with him for 40 minutes or so, and it’s certainly possible to get rags for 40 minutes and not enter a pot. So I would have only been 95% confident with my Rock judgment.
As you did in your column, I’ll evaluate each of your options pre-flop — Re-raise all in, fold, or call:
* Re-raising all in would be a respectable move. It’s tough to ever fault anyone for going all in preflop with Kings. But the problem is that you really don’t want a call, and it seems like you’re pretty likely to get one. If you get called, it will almost certainly be by either AA (to which I would attribute a 50% likelihood - 10% from the under then gun limper, 40% from the rock). In this case, of course, you’re dominated, running about an 80% shot of busting out. I would also add a 25% chance of one of your three (likely the limper or initial raiser, not the rock) opponents calling you with Ax. A dumb move, but one against which you’re (only) a 70% favorite. I say “only” because I am loathe to take a 70/30 shot with my entire stack at beginning of a satellite tournament. In this case you have a 70% shot of doubling up, and a 30% shot of busting out. Your best case scenario, which I estimate will happen 25% of the time, is that limper and initial raiser fold, and rock has QQ and probably folds, and you take the pot, making your stack about 14,000. Total expected value of re-raising all in is roughly -4475 from the numbers above.
* Folding has an expected value of 0, which means it’s better than re-raising all in. Plus, we’re talking about a satellite here. Doubling up early is of limited value. Hanging in is far more important. In a satellite where the top 20% get a seat, I would much rather pick up small pots over the course of the day than get into a risky scenario early for all my chips. In this satellite, my goal would be to build my stack to between 40K and 60K, so that when the bubble approaches, I can tighten down like it’s my job, and only pick fights with small stacks.
* I don’t like calling in this situation, because it forces me to invest 30% of my stack, and I get no more information as a result. If I call here, and a King comes on the flop, I’m golden, but that only happens 11-12% of the time. In this case, I’m running about a 50% shot of doubling up, and a 50% shot of just winning what’s already in the pot. With any non-King flop, I’m in exactly the same place as I was pre flop. If there’s a Q, I’m scared. If there’s an A, I’m really scared. If there’s none of the above, I’m still scared of pocket Aces. In 88% of the flops, I’m only going to win if the Rock plays very weakly. Expected value of calling is -80.
Certainly the expected values of calling and folding are within a pretty close range, certainly within the margin of error of my estimations. So that brings me back to satellite strategy. I’d rather play smaller pots and build slowly, instead of taking a big risk early.
It’s a close call, to be sure. And you didn’t ask for my opinion, but there it is. It’s tough to look down at KK and fold pre-flop, no doubt about it, and I can’t be sure that in the heat of the moment I wouldn’t have called or re-raised. But sitting at my desk, it’s easy for me to judge.
For what it’s worth, I think you made the right decision post-flop. But it just solidifies my suspicion that he had AA all along. If he had had QQ and made his set, the best play would have been to check try and get another bet out of you. Of course, you wouldn’t have given it to him, because you put him on either AA or QQ, and both of those hands dominated your KK after the flop.
Anyhow, I’d love to hear your broader opinion on HPT events, or if my analysis of your play makes any sense. Thanks for writing the column, and good luck at the tables.
Take care,
Paul
Here’s my direct response to Paul relating to the hand:
Now, about those pocket kings…
Your assessment was more in-depth than the other responses I received. Thank you very much for the time and thought you put into it! I can’t argue with anything you said. I can only say I never really considered folding pre-flop because even though Rocky could have had A-A, there was a decent chance he held Q-Q or less. From the body language and previous betting patterns of the UTG limper and the initial standard-size raiser, I knew with near certainty they would fold after I called. Once I put in the $3,000, they dumped their cards like hot potatoes.
The other key thought in my head was that, even if I mucked after the flop, I truly felt my remaining $7,000 would be enough to play with to get me through to the final 37. I certainly didn’t want to bust out that early and I have confidence in my short-stack play. Once we saw that door-card queen together and he immediately fired all-in, my gut said I was beat.