(Distributed August 1, 2006)
MONEYMAKER, RAYMER KNOW ODDS ARE AGAINST THEM
On the eve of their first day of play in this year’s World Series of Poker main event, neither Chris Moneymaker nor Greg Raymer liked their chances very much of repeating as world champion.
“If you want to be really generous, whoever you think is the best player in the field is 1,500-to-1 to win,” said Raymer, who estimated he was “in the ballpark of 2,000-to-1.” Moneymaker thought his odds of winning were even longer, “probably somewhere around 5,000-to-1.”
Reality, not pessimism, guided their assessments. That’s because a record-shattering 8,600 or more players are battling at the Rio Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas to claim the expected $11.7 million first-place prize — and the coveted gold-and-diamond bracelet — late on the night of Aug. 10.
Neither champion, however, thinks the premier event in poker has grown too large for its own good.
“If they want to put 100,000 people in this event, that’s fine with me. Having more players doesn’t mean they’re better players,” said Moneymaker, 29, who is proud that his average-Joe improbable victory in his first live tournament in 2003 helped ignite the current poker boom. The former accountant from Tennessee turned a $39 PokerStars online qualifying tournament into a $2.5 million payday.
Moneymaker bested 838 opponents — a big number in 2003 but not even one-tenth the size of this year’s field. Most players win their main-event seat in a live or online satellite tournament for considerably less than the standard $10,000 buy-in.
“The more the merrier,” said Raymer, 42. “Some people don’t like it and say, ‘How do you identify the best in the world if you have 6,000 mediocre-to-bad players.’ But the truth is that no one tournament can identify the best player in the world anyway.”
The former patent attorney from North Carolina, known as “Fossilman” because he collects fossils and famous for wearing opaque holographic sunglasses while in a hand, also qualified on PokerStars. His $160 investment yielded a cool $5 million in 2004 against a field of 2,576.
But Raymer, who amazingly also went deep (finishing 25th out of 5,619 players) in last year’s main event, had one concern with the surging main-event field. “The only issue is if you reach a point where we can’t hire enough dealers to handle the crowd. You can always build more poker tables, order more chips and cards, and make the event last longer and longer, but can you get enough dealers?”
Although both champions readily admit their new lifestyles as poker pros and ambassadors of the game mean less time at home with their families, neither believes fame and fortune changed them as a person.
“I hope not. No, I don’t think it did,” said Moneymaker, who used his new freedom from normal workplace confines to write a poker book and start two businesses.
“I’ve always been very happy with who I am,” said Raymer, who relishes not having to “get up early and go to the office every day. If I’ve changed, I’m not aware of it.”
As similar as they think on many topics, they carried different goals into this year’s World Series, a 45-event marathon which started June 26.
“I had tons of goals set and they went out the window with some family issues that I had,” said Moneymaker. “I was planning on playing in the majority of the events and would like to have made a couple of final tables, but I had to fly back home.” He competed in five events prior to the championship, cashing once for $7,153.
Raymer said his only goal playing poker “is to make every decision as perfectly as I can. I think any goals beyond that are unreasonable…because you can play perfect poker in every event and just have bad luck at the wrong time.” He said he has “played pretty well the whole Series” and, with some luck, might have captured a couple of bracelets. He cashed in two events this year for $100,702.
Will Moneymaker or Raymer defy the odds and win a second championship next week? Probably not. Given their drive for perfection and success, however, I wouldn’t bet against them!
(SET ITAL) Check out LuckyDog’s WSOP blog! (END ITAL)
Don’t miss Ol’ LuckyDog’s observations and real-time reports in a daily blog from Las Vegas starting this weekend as the World Series of Poker builds to its record-breaking climax on Aug. 10.
In addition to fresh accounts from the Rio, I’ll post more from my interviews with Chris Moneymaker and Greg Raymer. Hope you’ll check it out at luckydogpoker.com.
E-mail your poker questions and comments to russ@luckydogpoker.com for use in future columns. To find out more about Russ Scott and read previous LuckyDog Poker columns, visit www.creators.com.
COPYRIGHT 2006 RUSS SCOTT
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