(Distributed Oct. 3, 2006)

NOT A MATH WHIZ? OK, AT LEAST MEMORIZE THESE NUMBERS

Are you good at math? Hmm, thought so. Neither am I.

For many poker players, doing math calculations is the last thing on their mind when they sit down at the felt. They’re there to play and have fun! Throwing away 70 percent of their hands is, well, boring.

Still, poker is more fun when you win. That means we have to know the winning potential of starting cards and the odds of turning a drawing hand into a winning one. Remember, there’s a reason for the saying, “Never draw to an inside straight.”

Because figuring percentages in your head all the time would slow down the game, should you bring a pocket calculator to the table? No way!

Fortunately, some situations repeat quite often in Texas hold’em, and it’s easy to memorize the math involved. Once that’s done, you can concentrate on everything else going on at the table.

Let’s examine the math of some common hold’em situations, rounding off probabilities:

* Being dealt any pocket pair in the hole — 6 percent (1 in 17) chance. Getting A-A, K-K, Q-Q, or J-J as your starting hole cards — 1.8 percent (1 in 56). 

* Improving any pocket pair to three of a kind on the flop (the first three community cards) — 12 percent (1 in . If you don’t make trips on the flop, there’s a 9 percent (1 in 11) chance of doing so on the turn and river (the fourth and fifth board cards).

* A no-pair starting hand improving to a pair on the flop (either card) — 32 percent (1 in 3).

* Completing an open-ended straight after the flop — 34 percent (1 in 3). For instance, you hold 10-9, the flop is J-8-2, and the last two cards are 4-7.

* Being dealt suited hole cards (two spades of any rank, for example) — 24 percent (1 in 4). Being dealt suited connectors such as Q-J of hearts — 4 percent (1 in 25).

* Hitting two cards of your suit on the flop — 11 percent (1 in 9). Completing a flush after two cards of your suit come on the flop — 39 percent (1 in 2.6).

* Being dealt A-K to start — 1.2 percent (1 in 83).  With A-K in the pocket, hitting an ace or king by the river — 50 percent (1 in 2).

These numbers identify your chances of receiving certain starting cards and hitting specific hands, but that’s not the whole story. Knowing these percentages allows you to calculate “pot odds,” which gives you a mathematical reason for staying or folding.

For example, let’s say after the flop you have an open-ended straight draw with a 34 percent (1 in 3) chance of making the straight by the end of the hand — 17 percent (1 in 6) chance of hitting your straight on the turn card, plus 17 percent again to hit on the river.

In this case, as long as there is five times as much in the pot as the amount you must put in on a single bet, you’re getting sufficient pot odds to stay in. In low-stakes limit games, calling often is automatic; in no-limit, however, an opponent’s big bet usually means you’re not getting the correct odds and should fold.

Here’s a catch: Be aware that the card which makes your straight can give an opponent a better hand, such as a higher straight or a flush. When these possibilities are present, you should devalue your hand and play cautiously. 

Playing poker “by the numbers” increases the chance of winning, but remember that even top players who are math wizards don’t rely strictly on percentages to make betting decisions. A few months ago, I asked 2000 World Series champ Chris “Jesus” Ferguson if he was an analytical player who relies on probabilities. He just scoffed.

“That’s definitely not true,” said the man with a doctorate in computer science. Math plays a role, but it’s not the biggest part of his game, Ferguson said. (A complete interview transcript is posted at www.luckydogpoker.com.)

Oh yeah, is it true you should “never draw to an inside straight?” Actually, no!

Sure, most of the time you should fold because the chances of hitting your straight on the next card are slim (11-1 against). But on rare occasions, you’ll have the proper pot odds to make the draw. Do the math!

E-mail your poker questions and comments to russ@luckydogpoker.com for use in future columns. To find out more about Russ Scott and read previous LuckyDog Poker columns, visit www.creators.com or www.luckydogpoker.com.
COPYRIGHT 2006 RUSS SCOTT
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